Virgil Cain is my name and I served on the Danville train. "The Night They Drove Old Dixie Down"-The Band
Southland Conference · Hilliard Center · February 20, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread AMCC -15.5 Away covered
O/U 138.5 Under
Money AMCC -1600 / NWST +800
Model Predictions
Spread Total AMCC win
Actual AMCC +11 133 Won
Massey AMCC -13.3 (-2.3) — —
Massey Totals — 138.9 (-5.9) —
Bradley-Terry — — 89% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 92% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML AMCC -10.6 (+0.4) 137.7 (-4.7) 86% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ AMCC -10.0 (+1.0) 136.4 (-3.4) 84% ✓
Baseline Plus ML AMCC -10.8 (+0.2) 139.0 (-6.0) 86% ✓
Baseline ML AMCC -10.4 (+0.6) 136.9 (-3.9) 85% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 28, 2026 AMCC 71 – 59 NWST
Jan 10, 2026 NWST 79 – 78 AMCC
Mar 10, 2025 NWST 66 – 63 AMCC
Jan 14, 2025 AMCC 73 – 64 NWST
Jan 27, 2024 AMCC 79 – 68 NWST

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings AMCC NWST
Overall 21-12 9-23
Conference 14-4 7-11
Home 13-2 6-7
Away 8-7 3-13
Neutral 0-3 0-3
Last 5 3-2 3-2
Streak L2 L4
Avg Pts For 71.7 68.6
Avg Pts Against 68.9 76.7
Massey -1.5 (#189) -11.5 (#333)
Bradley-Terry -0.56 (#224) -2.08 (#335)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.70 (#226) -2.41 (#330)
RPI 0.481 (#212) 0.401 (#336)
Shooting & Four Factors AMCC NWST
FG% 41.3% 42.2%
3PT% 29.5% 31.4%
REB / G 38.8 32.3
OREB / G 13.3 10.5
AST / TO 1.08 0.82
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 45.7% 48.1%
TOV% 17.5% 19.9%
ORB% 33.9% 29.1%
FT Rate 25.2% 24.7%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 48.9% 53.5%
Opp TOV% 20.0% 18.6%
DRB% 75.4% 65.3%
Opp FT Rate 36.0% 28.1%

Game Analysis

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