Betting Lines
| Spread | MAN -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | MAN -340 CAN +270 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CAN +6 | 134 | Lost |
| Massey | MAN -6.3 (-12.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.1 (-14.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MAN -3.9 (-9.9) | 138.8 (-4.8) | 66% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MAN -4.6 (-10.6) | 140.4 (-6.4) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MAN -3.4 (-9.4) | 140.2 (-6.2) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MAN -3.8 (-9.8) | 142.1 (-8.1) | 61% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | MAN 69 – 65 CAN |
| Mar 1, 2025 | MAN 77 – 72 CAN |
| Mar 9, 2024 | CAN 73 – 70 MAN |
| Jan 27, 2024 | CAN 82 – 70 MAN |
| Jan 29, 2023 | MAN 81 – 74 CAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MAN | CAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 10-21 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 5-15 |
| Home | 7-7 | 7-8 |
| Away | 3-12 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 62.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.6 | 71.4 |
| Massey | -11.2 (#320) | -13.8 (#344) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.11 (#263) | -1.00 (#255) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.77 (#277) | -1.57 (#266) |
| RPI | 0.456 (#251) | 0.463 (#239) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MAN | CAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 40.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 32.3 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.4% | 47.2% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 21.4% |
| ORB% | 27.7% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 27.7% | 27.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.4% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 60.8% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.7% | 26.3% |
Game Analysis
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