Betting Lines
| Spread | CAN -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | CAN -175 MAN +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MAN +7 | 155 | Lost |
| Massey | CAN -6.7 (-13.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.6 (+11.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CAN -4.1 (-11.1) | 138.6 (+16.4) | 62% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CAN -4.3 (-11.3) | 139.4 (+15.6) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CAN -4.2 (-11.2) | 139.4 (+15.6) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CAN -3.7 (-10.7) | 139.7 (+15.3) | 60% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | MAN 69 – 65 CAN |
| Jan 10, 2026 | CAN 70 – 64 MAN |
| Mar 1, 2025 | MAN 77 – 72 CAN |
| Mar 9, 2024 | CAN 73 – 70 MAN |
| Jan 27, 2024 | CAN 82 – 70 MAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAN | MAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-20 | 12-18 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 10-10 |
| Home | 7-7 | 5-9 |
| Away | 3-12 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.4 | 66.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.0 | 71.5 |
| Massey | -5.7 (#270) | -8.9 (#321) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.50 (#306) | -1.82 (#327) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.76 (#304) | -2.43 (#333) |
| RPI | 0.446 (#276) | 0.416 (#324) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAN | MAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.9% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 30.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.6% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 21.2% |
| ORB% | 30.9% | 26.6% |
| FT Rate | 17.9% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.2% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 21.5% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 64.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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