Betting Lines
| Spread | CAN -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | CAN -350 MAN +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CAN +12 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | CAN -13.0 (-1.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.6 (+9.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CAN -9.1 (+2.9) | 141.1 (+10.9) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CAN -9.5 (+2.5) | 140.2 (+11.8) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CAN -9.9 (+2.1) | 139.8 (+12.2) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CAN -10.4 (+1.6) | 142.2 (+9.8) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | MAN 69 – 65 CAN |
| Jan 10, 2026 | CAN 70 – 64 MAN |
| Mar 1, 2025 | MAN 77 – 72 CAN |
| Mar 9, 2024 | CAN 73 – 70 MAN |
| Jan 29, 2023 | MAN 81 – 74 CAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAN | MAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 7-23 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 4-16 |
| Home | 8-4 | 3-10 |
| Away | 3-12 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.1 | 65.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.2 | 76.1 |
| Massey | -3.0 (#216) | -12.3 (#336) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.72 (#245) | -1.99 (#328) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.80 (#236) | -3.17 (#346) |
| RPI | 0.477 (#214) | 0.437 (#284) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAN | MAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 39.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 29.9% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 45.8% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 31.9% | 25.3% |
| FT Rate | 19.6% | 14.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.4% | 19.5% |
Game Analysis
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