Betting Lines
| Spread | MAN -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | CAN +215 MAN -260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MAN +5 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | MAN -6.4 (+1.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.9 (-6.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MAN -6.9 (+1.9) | 151.6 (-2.6) | 26% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MAN -6.0 (+1.0) | 149.0 (+0.0) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MAN -6.3 (+1.3) | 149.1 (-0.1) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MAN -6.4 (+1.4) | 151.4 (-2.4) | 24% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | MAN 69 – 65 CAN |
| Jan 10, 2026 | CAN 70 – 64 MAN |
| Mar 9, 2024 | CAN 73 – 70 MAN |
| Jan 27, 2024 | CAN 82 – 70 MAN |
| Jan 29, 2023 | MAN 81 – 74 CAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAN | MAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3-28 | 17-14 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 12-8 |
| Home | 1-12 | 9-5 |
| Away | 2-15 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.8 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.6 | 75.2 |
| Massey | -14.9 (#355) | -5.3 (#252) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.69 (#352) | -0.72 (#233) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.09 (#350) | -1.06 (#248) |
| RPI | 0.415 (#326) | 0.479 (#220) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAN | MAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 37.6% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 25.7 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 5.7 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 18.4% | 32.2% |
| FT Rate | 18.3% | 23.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.2% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 65.4% | 66.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 19.1% |
Game Analysis
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