Betting Lines
| Spread | MAN -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | CAN +102 MAN -122 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MAN +4 | 134 | Lost |
| Massey | CAN -0.6 (-4.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.8 (-11.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 52% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MAN -1.7 (-2.3) | 140.6 (-6.6) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MAN -0.2 (-3.8) | 140.3 (-6.3) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MAN -0.2 (-3.8) | 141.9 (-7.9) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MAN -1.0 (-3.0) | 141.1 (-7.1) | 45% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | CAN 70 – 64 MAN |
| Mar 1, 2025 | MAN 77 – 72 CAN |
| Mar 9, 2024 | CAN 73 – 70 MAN |
| Jan 27, 2024 | CAN 82 – 70 MAN |
| Jan 29, 2023 | MAN 81 – 74 CAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAN | MAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-21 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 8-12 |
| Home | 7-8 | 7-7 |
| Away | 3-13 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.2 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.4 | 79.6 |
| Massey | -14.5 (#347) | -12.2 (#332) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.96 (#330) | -1.47 (#296) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.50 (#331) | -2.03 (#302) |
| RPI | 0.423 (#317) | 0.449 (#273) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAN | MAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.6% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.4% | 48.5% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 29.8% | 28.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 27.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.5% | 54.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 62.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.5% | 18.7% |
Game Analysis
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