Betting Lines
| Spread | SBU -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | SBU -410 FOR +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SBU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FOR +4 | 158 | Lost |
| Massey | SBU -9.7 (-13.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.2 (+18.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SBU -7.8 (-11.8) | 132.8 (+25.2) | 76% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SBU -8.2 (-12.2) | 132.0 (+26.0) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SBU -7.4 (-11.4) | 134.7 (+23.3) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SBU -6.9 (-10.9) | 134.1 (+23.9) | 76% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | SBU 70 – 67 FOR |
| Feb 1, 2025 | SBU 74 – 72 FOR |
| Jan 4, 2025 | SBU 86 – 66 FOR |
| Feb 15, 2024 | SBU 85 – 67 FOR |
| Jan 13, 2024 | FOR 80 – 74 SBU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SBU | FOR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 8-10 |
| Home | 9-7 | 11-7 |
| Away | 4-7 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.2 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.4 | 66.3 |
| Massey | 3.2 (#122) | -2.8 (#211) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.38 (#79) | -1.39 (#280) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.65 (#81) | -1.40 (#257) |
| RPI | 0.594 (#44) | 0.424 (#303) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SBU | FOR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.7% | 28.5% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 39.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.9 | 13.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 37.6% | 37.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 15.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 75.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.4% | 18.2% |
Game Analysis
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