Betting Lines
| Spread | SBU -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | FOR +145 SBU -188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FOR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SBU +18 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | SBU -5.7 (-12.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.3 (+7.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SBU -4.7 (-13.3) | 141.8 (+10.2) | 32% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SBU -3.0 (-15.0) | 140.4 (+11.6) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SBU -4.3 (-13.7) | 140.8 (+11.2) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SBU -4.4 (-13.6) | 140.6 (+11.4) | 32% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | SBU 70 – 67 FOR |
| Jan 10, 2026 | FOR 81 – 77 SBU |
| Feb 1, 2025 | SBU 74 – 72 FOR |
| Jan 4, 2025 | SBU 86 – 66 FOR |
| Jan 13, 2024 | FOR 80 – 74 SBU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FOR | SBU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 9-9 |
| Home | 6-11 | 11-4 |
| Away | 4-6 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.5 | 73.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 68.6 |
| Massey | -1.6 (#191) | 7.5 (#78) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.42 (#211) | 0.83 (#113) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.61 (#222) | 1.06 (#110) |
| RPI | 0.477 (#212) | 0.545 (#103) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FOR | SBU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.0% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 37.7 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.6% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 32.2% | 31.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.9% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.6% | 24.0% |
Game Analysis
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