Betting Lines
| Spread | SBU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | FOR +102 SBU -122 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FOR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SBU +3 | 137 | Lost |
| Massey | FOR -1.2 (-4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.7 (-1.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 36% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FOR -0.4 (-3.4) | 134.9 (+2.1) | 54% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SBU -0.2 (-2.8) | 131.3 (+5.7) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FOR -0.9 (-3.9) | 133.2 (+3.8) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FOR -0.5 (-3.5) | 134.5 (+2.5) | 53% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | FOR 81 – 77 SBU |
| Feb 1, 2025 | SBU 74 – 72 FOR |
| Jan 4, 2025 | SBU 86 – 66 FOR |
| Feb 15, 2024 | SBU 85 – 67 FOR |
| Jan 13, 2024 | FOR 80 – 74 SBU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FOR | SBU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 4-14 |
| Home | 11-7 | 9-7 |
| Away | 4-6 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 76.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 75.4 |
| Massey | -0.4 (#172) | 1.4 (#142) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.81 (#238) | 0.28 (#137) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.70 (#215) | 0.50 (#122) |
| RPI | 0.474 (#229) | 0.533 (#105) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FOR | SBU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 28.0% | 36.3% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 13.1 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 1.39 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.6% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 36.5% | 34.7% |
| FT Rate | 15.8% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 54.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 26.4% |
Game Analysis
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