Betting Lines
| Spread | SBU -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | FOR +220 SBU -270 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FOR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SBU +20 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | SBU -8.8 (-11.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.4 (+13.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SBU -8.1 (-11.9) | 137.3 (+14.7) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SBU -8.4 (-11.6) | 137.5 (+14.5) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SBU -7.7 (-12.3) | 137.3 (+14.7) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SBU -8.2 (-11.8) | 137.7 (+14.3) | 22% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | SBU 70 – 67 FOR |
| Jan 10, 2026 | FOR 81 – 77 SBU |
| Feb 1, 2025 | SBU 74 – 72 FOR |
| Feb 15, 2024 | SBU 85 – 67 FOR |
| Jan 13, 2024 | FOR 80 – 74 SBU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FOR | SBU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 9-9 |
| Home | 8-8 | 12-4 |
| Away | 2-10 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.5 | 68.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.5 | 65.6 |
| Massey | -4.5 (#246) | 8.4 (#68) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.27 (#192) | 2.97 (#17) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.56 (#210) | 3.85 (#21) |
| RPI | 0.474 (#216) | 0.597 (#43) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FOR | SBU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 31.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.1% | 46.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 17.8% |
Game Analysis
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