Betting Lines
| Spread | SBU -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | SBU -600 FOR +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SBU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FOR +6 | 154 | Lost |
| Massey | SBU -13.3 (-19.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.7 (+10.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SBU -13.2 (-19.2) | 142.7 (+11.3) | 85% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SBU -8.7 (-14.7) | 141.4 (+12.6) | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SBU -11.5 (-17.5) | 144.7 (+9.3) | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SBU -11.7 (-17.7) | 144.0 (+10.0) | 85% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | SBU 70 – 67 FOR |
| Jan 10, 2026 | FOR 81 – 77 SBU |
| Feb 1, 2025 | SBU 74 – 72 FOR |
| Jan 4, 2025 | SBU 86 – 66 FOR |
| Feb 15, 2024 | SBU 85 – 67 FOR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SBU | FOR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 6-12 |
| Home | 11-4 | 6-11 |
| Away | 5-6 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.5 | 70.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.6 | 72.4 |
| Massey | 7.7 (#68) | -1.5 (#196) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.13 (#85) | -0.73 (#244) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.27 (#98) | -0.93 (#244) |
| RPI | 0.554 (#91) | 0.462 (#243) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SBU | FOR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 37.5% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 39.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 14.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.3% | 48.1% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 34.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 26.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 21.1% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 31.8% |
Game Analysis
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