Betting Lines
| Spread | NHVN -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Under |
| Money | NHVN -130 FDU +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NHVN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NHVN +10 | 120 | Won |
| Massey | NHVN -5.3 (+4.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.1 (-11.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NHVN -3.9 (+6.1) | 130.2 (-10.2) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NHVN -3.3 (+6.7) | 130.3 (-10.3) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NHVN -4.2 (+5.8) | 129.1 (-9.1) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NHVN -3.5 (+6.5) | 128.9 (-8.9) | 52% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | NHVN 84 – 77 FDU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NHVN | FDU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 8-10 |
| Home | 9-6 | 8-6 |
| Away | 5-11 | 3-15 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | W1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.5 | 65.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.4 | 72.7 |
| Massey | -11.6 (#330) | -13.2 (#339) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.80 (#312) | -2.85 (#347) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.42 (#311) | -3.69 (#346) |
| RPI | 0.455 (#255) | 0.375 (#352) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NHVN | FDU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.2% | 38.9% |
| 3PT% | 27.2% | 30.8% |
| REB / G | 30.0 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.3% | 46.7% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 22.9% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 15.5% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.0% | 56.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 26.4% |
Game Analysis
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