Betting Lines
| Spread | AMER -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | AMER -440 HC +340 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AMER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HC +11 | 157 | Lost |
| Massey | AMER -9.8 (-20.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.2 (+16.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AMER -7.1 (-18.1) | 136.0 (+21.0) | 76% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AMER -7.9 (-18.9) | 134.4 (+22.6) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AMER -7.6 (-18.6) | 135.9 (+21.1) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | AMER -7.1 (-18.1) | 135.2 (+21.8) | 71% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | AMER 76 – 67 HC |
| Jan 18, 2025 | AMER 74 – 65 HC |
| Jan 5, 2025 | AMER 75 – 64 HC |
| Feb 10, 2024 | HC 58 – 56 AMER |
| Jan 25, 2024 | AMER 84 – 65 HC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AMER | HC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 11-22 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 5-13 |
| Home | 11-6 | 6-8 |
| Away | 5-10 | 4-14 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 74.8 |
| Massey | -4.6 (#241) | -10.8 (#317) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.56 (#226) | -1.81 (#313) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.81 (#225) | -2.63 (#319) |
| RPI | 0.478 (#218) | 0.409 (#324) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AMER | HC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 30.0% |
| REB / G | 29.1 | 29.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 7.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 48.5% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 23.6% | 22.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.8% | 56.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 66.6% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.8% | 19.6% |
Game Analysis
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