Betting Lines
| Spread | AMER -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | HC +230 AMER -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HC +2 | 114 | Won |
| Massey | AMER -5.9 (+7.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.2 (-28.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 20% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AMER -5.4 (+7.4) | 135.9 (-21.9) | 28% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AMER -5.5 (+7.5) | 132.3 (-18.3) | 32% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AMER -5.8 (+7.8) | 135.1 (-21.1) | 30% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | AMER -4.8 (+6.8) | 135.0 (-21.0) | 31% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | AMER 76 – 67 HC |
| Jan 10, 2026 | HC 84 – 73 AMER |
| Jan 18, 2025 | AMER 74 – 65 HC |
| Jan 5, 2025 | AMER 75 – 64 HC |
| Jan 25, 2024 | AMER 84 – 65 HC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HC | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-23 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 10-8 |
| Home | 5-8 | 8-7 |
| Away | 4-14 | 8-9 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.8 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.1 | 67.8 |
| Massey | -14.7 (#351) | -5.4 (#272) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.62 (#351) | -1.39 (#298) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.53 (#353) | -1.46 (#288) |
| RPI | 0.383 (#347) | 0.429 (#307) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HC | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 31.6 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 23.1% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 17.3% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.1% | 53.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.2% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 74.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
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