Betting Lines
| Spread | AMER -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | HC +110 AMER -130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AMER +9 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | HC -1.8 (-10.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.2 (-1.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HC -1.1 (-10.1) | 137.0 (+2.0) | 56% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HC -1.3 (-10.3) | 135.5 (+3.5) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HC -0.3 (-9.3) | 137.0 (+2.0) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | HC -0.6 (-9.6) | 138.0 (+1.0) | 51% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | AMER 76 – 67 HC |
| Jan 10, 2026 | HC 84 – 73 AMER |
| Jan 5, 2025 | AMER 75 – 64 HC |
| Feb 10, 2024 | HC 58 – 56 AMER |
| Jan 25, 2024 | AMER 84 – 65 HC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HC | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 13-5 |
| Home | 7-6 | 14-2 |
| Away | 4-13 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 2-0 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 67.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.7 | 68.5 |
| Massey | -7.5 (#289) | -5.6 (#260) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.27 (#198) | -0.60 (#227) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.79 (#224) | -0.78 (#223) |
| RPI | 0.492 (#186) | 0.481 (#211) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HC | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 39.7% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 30.8 | 29.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 23.5% | 23.4% |
| FT Rate | 16.1% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.6% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.1% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.6% | 27.3% |
Game Analysis
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