Betting Lines
| Spread | AMER -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | HC +180 AMER -218 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AMER +9 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | AMER -3.3 (-5.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.8 (+3.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 38% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AMER -3.0 (-6.0) | 133.7 (+9.3) | 37% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AMER -3.2 (-5.8) | 135.1 (+7.9) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AMER -2.9 (-6.1) | 136.3 (+6.7) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AMER -2.6 (-6.4) | 135.2 (+7.8) | 36% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | HC 84 – 73 AMER |
| Jan 18, 2025 | AMER 74 – 65 HC |
| Jan 5, 2025 | AMER 75 – 64 HC |
| Feb 10, 2024 | HC 58 – 56 AMER |
| Jan 25, 2024 | AMER 84 – 65 HC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HC | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-22 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 9-9 |
| Home | 6-8 | 11-6 |
| Away | 4-14 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.9 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 72.7 |
| Massey | -10.4 (#317) | -3.8 (#227) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.47 (#302) | -0.39 (#208) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.15 (#309) | -0.63 (#211) |
| RPI | 0.432 (#297) | 0.495 (#190) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HC | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 29.8 | 30.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.1 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 21.6% | 26.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.8% | 53.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.0% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.6% | 32.4% |
Game Analysis
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