Betting Lines
| Spread | AMER -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | AMER -600 HC +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AMER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AMER +19 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | AMER -13.7 (+5.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.7 (+5.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AMER -10.4 (+8.6) | 138.9 (+10.1) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AMER -10.3 (+8.7) | 138.2 (+10.8) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AMER -11.3 (+7.7) | 138.6 (+10.4) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AMER -10.9 (+8.1) | 138.9 (+10.1) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | AMER 76 – 67 HC |
| Jan 10, 2026 | HC 84 – 73 AMER |
| Jan 18, 2025 | AMER 74 – 65 HC |
| Jan 5, 2025 | AMER 75 – 64 HC |
| Feb 10, 2024 | HC 58 – 56 AMER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AMER | HC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 10-23 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 6-12 |
| Home | 8-7 | 5-8 |
| Away | 8-9 | 4-14 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 65.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 75.1 |
| Massey | -4.3 (#247) | -14.3 (#349) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.44 (#300) | -2.61 (#348) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.59 (#291) | -3.54 (#353) |
| RPI | 0.424 (#300) | 0.366 (#357) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AMER | HC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 24.6% |
| FT Rate | 18.7% | 15.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.7% | 53.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 12.9% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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