And I'm telling you son, well, it ain't no fun staring straight down a forty-four. "Gimme Three Steps" - Lynyrd Skynyrd
Patriot League · Bender Arena · January 5, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread AMER -6.5 Home covered
O/U 137.5 Over
Money AMER -290 / HC +240
Model Predictions
Spread Total AMER win
Actual AMER +11 139 Won
Massey AMER -2.8 (+8.2)
Massey Totals 142.0 (-3.0)
Bradley-Terry 30%
Weighted B-T 37%
Baseline Plus ML AMER -0.3 (+10.7) 139.0 (+0.0) 52%
Model 4 ML AMER -2.0 (+9.0) 138.0 (+1.0) 63%
Model 3 ML AMER -0.9 (+10.1) 139.8 (-0.8) 54%
Baseline ML AMER -0.4 (+10.6) 140.6 (-1.6) 53%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Jan 24, 2026 AMER 7667 HC
Jan 10, 2026 HC 8473 AMER
Jan 18, 2025 AMER 7465 HC
Feb 10, 2024 HC 5856 AMER
Jan 25, 2024 AMER 8465 HC

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings AMER HC
Overall 22-13 13-19
Conference 13-5 5-13
Home 14-2 7-6
Away 5-10 4-13
Neutral 2-1 2-0
Last 5 1-4 4-1
Streak L1 L4
Avg Pts For 67.8 68.6
Avg Pts Against 68.5 73.7
Massey -7.8 (#291) -6.3 (#276)
Bradley-Terry -0.85 (#251) 0.78 (#113)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.13 (#249) 0.31 (#147)
RPI 0.465 (#234) 0.538 (#108)
Shooting & Four Factors AMER HC
FG% 42.7% 43.6%
3PT% 33.2% 40.0%
REB / G 29.4 30.3
OREB / G 8.2 7.7
AST / TO 1.00 1.09
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 50.6% 52.3%
TOV% 18.5% 17.4%
ORB% 24.4% 23.8%
FT Rate 20.4% 17.3%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 54.3% 53.7%
Opp TOV% 15.1% 14.7%
DRB% 71.3% 71.4%
Opp FT Rate 28.5% 19.7%

Game Analysis

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