Betting Lines
| Spread | AMER -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | AMER -290 HC +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AMER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AMER +11 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | AMER -2.8 (+8.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.0 (-3.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 30% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AMER -0.9 (+10.1) | 139.8 (-0.8) | 54% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AMER -2.0 (+9.0) | 138.0 (+1.0) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AMER -0.3 (+10.7) | 139.0 (+0.0) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AMER -0.4 (+10.6) | 140.6 (-1.6) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | AMER 76 – 67 HC |
| Jan 10, 2026 | HC 84 – 73 AMER |
| Jan 18, 2025 | AMER 74 – 65 HC |
| Feb 10, 2024 | HC 58 – 56 AMER |
| Jan 25, 2024 | AMER 84 – 65 HC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AMER | HC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 5-13 |
| Home | 14-2 | 7-6 |
| Away | 5-10 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.8 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.5 | 73.7 |
| Massey | -7.8 (#291) | -6.3 (#276) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.85 (#251) | 0.78 (#113) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.13 (#249) | 0.31 (#147) |
| RPI | 0.465 (#234) | 0.538 (#108) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AMER | HC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 40.0% |
| REB / G | 29.4 | 30.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 24.4% | 23.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.4% | 17.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.3% | 53.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 14.7% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.5% | 19.7% |
Game Analysis
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