Betting Lines
| Spread | LONG -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | LONG -162 PRES +136 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LONG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LONG +7 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | LONG -3.6 (+3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.4 (+7.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LONG -2.3 (+4.7) | 134.6 (+12.4) | 60% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LONG -2.4 (+4.6) | 132.9 (+14.1) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LONG -2.1 (+4.9) | 136.0 (+11.0) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LONG -2.0 (+5.0) | 136.7 (+10.3) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | PRES 72 – 65 LONG |
| Feb 15, 2025 | PRES 77 – 68 LONG |
| Jan 2, 2025 | PRES 68 – 60 LONG |
| Feb 17, 2024 | LONG 81 – 73 PRES |
| Jan 20, 2024 | LONG 80 – 70 PRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LONG | PRES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 7-9 |
| Home | 11-4 | 10-4 |
| Away | 4-10 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.9 | 70.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.2 | 73.1 |
| Massey | -8.4 (#290) | -8.4 (#289) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.73 (#308) | -1.30 (#274) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.91 (#285) | -2.09 (#296) |
| RPI | 0.408 (#326) | 0.431 (#288) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LONG | PRES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 28.0% | 28.3% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.7% | 47.5% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 33.4% | 35.9% |
| FT Rate | 34.0% | 24.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.0% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.2% | 27.2% |
Game Analysis
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