Betting Lines
| Spread | LONG -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | PRES +145 LONG -170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PRES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PRES +8 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | PRES -1.0 (+7.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.5 (-16.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 41% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PRES -0.7 (+7.3) | 144.3 (-16.3) | 51% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PRES -0.2 (+7.8) | 142.5 (-14.5) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PRES -1.2 (+6.8) | 143.3 (-15.3) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PRES -0.6 (+7.4) | 143.9 (-15.9) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | PRES 72 – 65 LONG |
| Jan 10, 2026 | LONG 77 – 70 PRES |
| Feb 15, 2025 | PRES 77 – 68 LONG |
| Feb 17, 2024 | LONG 81 – 73 PRES |
| Jan 20, 2024 | LONG 80 – 70 PRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PRES | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 7-9 |
| Home | 8-5 | 12-4 |
| Away | 4-12 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.5 | 76.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.9 | 76.1 |
| Massey | -3.7 (#225) | -0.6 (#169) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.90 (#255) | 0.23 (#148) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.25 (#254) | 0.18 (#153) |
| RPI | 0.431 (#293) | 0.487 (#190) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PRES | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 37.8% | 28.4% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 31.0% | 34.0% |
| FT Rate | 20.6% | 31.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 54.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 23.5% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.4% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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