Betting Lines
| Spread | LONG -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | PRES +140 LONG -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PRES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LONG +8 | 154 | Lost |
| Massey | LONG -2.8 (-5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.0 (+12.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LONG -1.8 (-6.2) | 144.9 (+9.1) | 42% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LONG -4.1 (-3.9) | 142.0 (+12.0) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LONG -1.6 (-6.4) | 142.3 (+11.7) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LONG -2.0 (-6.0) | 143.2 (+10.8) | 46% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | PRES 72 – 65 LONG |
| Jan 10, 2026 | LONG 77 – 70 PRES |
| Feb 15, 2025 | PRES 77 – 68 LONG |
| Jan 2, 2025 | PRES 68 – 60 LONG |
| Jan 20, 2024 | LONG 80 – 70 PRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PRES | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 6-10 | 6-10 |
| Home | 8-7 | 13-3 |
| Away | 5-9 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 72.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.6 | 70.2 |
| Massey | -7.0 (#287) | -0.9 (#181) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.23 (#290) | -0.69 (#245) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.47 (#292) | -0.81 (#241) |
| RPI | 0.411 (#325) | 0.469 (#231) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PRES | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 31.8 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 13.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 48.0% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 25.1% | 37.1% |
| FT Rate | 25.4% | 26.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.7% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 74.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.2% | 24.1% |
Game Analysis
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