Betting Lines
| Spread | LONG -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | LONG -800 PRES +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LONG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LONG +10 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | LONG -12.9 (-2.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.6 (+11.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LONG -10.2 (-0.2) | 140.6 (+9.4) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LONG -11.3 (-1.3) | 138.2 (+11.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LONG -9.4 (+0.6) | 137.7 (+12.3) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LONG -9.9 (+0.1) | 139.0 (+11.0) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | PRES 72 – 65 LONG |
| Jan 10, 2026 | LONG 77 – 70 PRES |
| Feb 15, 2025 | PRES 77 – 68 LONG |
| Jan 2, 2025 | PRES 68 – 60 LONG |
| Feb 17, 2024 | LONG 81 – 73 PRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LONG | PRES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 6-10 | 6-10 |
| Home | 13-3 | 8-7 |
| Away | 5-10 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.9 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 74.6 |
| Massey | 1.2 (#146) | -8.0 (#299) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.14 (#188) | -1.56 (#313) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.29 (#202) | -1.76 (#302) |
| RPI | 0.483 (#200) | 0.399 (#330) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LONG | PRES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 36.8% | 24.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 74.4% | 75.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 32.7% |
Game Analysis
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