Betting Lines
| Spread | PRES -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | PRES -142 LONG +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PRES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PRES +7 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | PRES -2.5 (+4.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.5 (-3.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PRES -1.7 (+5.3) | 139.1 (-2.1) | 56% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PRES -2.1 (+4.9) | 139.2 (-2.2) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PRES -1.5 (+5.5) | 139.5 (-2.5) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PRES -1.9 (+5.1) | 140.8 (-3.8) | 54% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | LONG 77 – 70 PRES |
| Feb 15, 2025 | PRES 77 – 68 LONG |
| Jan 2, 2025 | PRES 68 – 60 LONG |
| Feb 17, 2024 | LONG 81 – 73 PRES |
| Jan 20, 2024 | LONG 80 – 70 PRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PRES | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 8-8 |
| Home | 10-4 | 11-4 |
| Away | 3-13 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.0 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.1 | 76.2 |
| Massey | -7.2 (#277) | -6.7 (#271) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.14 (#272) | -1.48 (#300) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.84 (#294) | -1.77 (#291) |
| RPI | 0.464 (#249) | 0.424 (#317) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PRES | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 30.9% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 34.2% | 33.6% |
| FT Rate | 26.5% | 29.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.0% | 28.8% |
Game Analysis
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