Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -22.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | PUR -6500 PSU +2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +8 | 178 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -22.7 (-14.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.5 (+26.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -17.2 (-9.2) | 146.1 (+31.9) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -17.6 (-9.6) | 146.9 (+31.1) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -18.9 (-10.9) | 148.0 (+30.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -18.2 (-10.2) | 145.8 (+32.2) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 5, 2024 | PSU 81 – 70 PUR |
| Jan 13, 2024 | PUR 95 – 78 PSU |
| Mar 12, 2023 | PUR 67 – 65 PSU |
| Feb 1, 2023 | PUR 80 – 60 PSU |
| Jan 8, 2023 | PUR 76 – 63 PSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | PSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-9 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 3-17 |
| Home | 12-5 | 9-8 |
| Away | 8-3 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 10-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.6 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 79.3 |
| Massey | 23.4 (#6) | 4.3 (#111) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.66 (#7) | 0.53 (#127) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 6.71 (#8) | 0.49 (#141) |
| RPI | 0.678 (#3) | 0.518 (#137) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | PSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.3% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 39.4% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 39.6 | 31.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 2.02 | 1.47 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.9% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 13.4% |
| ORB% | 39.9% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 20.4% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 55.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.0% | 19.8% |
Game Analysis
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