Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | PUR -500 PSU +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +20 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -10.2 (+9.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.2 (+3.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -10.7 (+9.3) | 134.9 (+5.1) | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -11.4 (+8.6) | 135.0 (+5.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -10.4 (+9.6) | 135.8 (+4.2) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -10.5 (+9.5) | 135.9 (+4.1) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | PUR 93 – 85 PSU |
| Dec 5, 2024 | PSU 81 – 70 PUR |
| Jan 13, 2024 | PUR 95 – 78 PSU |
| Mar 12, 2023 | PUR 67 – 65 PSU |
| Jan 8, 2023 | PUR 76 – 63 PSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | PSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-6 | 23-14 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 10-10 |
| Home | 14-2 | 13-3 |
| Away | 7-3 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 7-1 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 72.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.7 | 68.2 |
| Massey | 16.6 (#6) | 9.9 (#48) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.19 (#1) | 1.74 (#50) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.93 (#1) | 2.38 (#42) |
| RPI | 0.650 (#3) | 0.568 (#66) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | PSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 38.5% |
| REB / G | 39.5 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 5.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.40 | 1.68 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 55.6% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 13.1% |
| ORB% | 38.1% | 17.6% |
| FT Rate | 27.7% | 14.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.6% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 14.7% |
| DRB% | 76.3% | 75.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.1% | 18.0% |
Game Analysis
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