Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -18.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | PUR -5000 PSU +1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +17 | 173 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -21.5 (-4.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.8 (+18.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -17.2 (-0.2) | 152.1 (+20.9) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -16.1 (+0.9) | 156.4 (+16.6) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -16.0 (+1.0) | 152.9 (+20.1) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -17.8 (-0.8) | 152.5 (+20.5) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | PUR 93 – 85 PSU |
| Dec 5, 2024 | PSU 81 – 70 PUR |
| Mar 12, 2023 | PUR 67 – 65 PSU |
| Feb 1, 2023 | PUR 80 – 60 PSU |
| Jan 8, 2023 | PUR 76 – 63 PSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | PSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 34-5 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 9-11 |
| Home | 16-0 | 12-4 |
| Away | 7-3 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 11-2 | 2-5 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 82.3 | 75.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 73.4 |
| Massey | 21.4 (#3) | 3.9 (#112) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.58 (#1) | -0.05 (#180) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.39 (#2) | 0.27 (#157) |
| RPI | 0.698 (#1) | 0.471 (#229) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | PSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.9% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 39.4% | 29.7% |
| REB / G | 40.8 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.54 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.2% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 36.6% | 28.5% |
| FT Rate | 28.7% | 27.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 23.2% |
| DRB% | 75.2% | 66.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.3% | 24.5% |
Game Analysis
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