Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | PUR -400 PSU +280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +2 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -6.5 (-4.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.8 (-4.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -7.2 (-5.2) | 130.5 (+1.5) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -5.6 (-3.6) | 137.4 (-5.4) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -5.2 (-3.2) | 134.0 (-2.0) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -4.2 (-2.2) | 134.0 (-2.0) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | PUR 93 – 85 PSU |
| Dec 5, 2024 | PSU 81 – 70 PUR |
| Jan 13, 2024 | PUR 95 – 78 PSU |
| Feb 1, 2023 | PUR 80 – 60 PSU |
| Jan 8, 2023 | PUR 76 – 63 PSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | PSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-6 | 23-14 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 10-10 |
| Home | 14-2 | 13-3 |
| Away | 7-3 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 7-1 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 72.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.7 | 68.2 |
| Massey | 16.5 (#9) | 10.0 (#47) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.29 (#4) | 1.95 (#36) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.05 (#4) | 2.41 (#38) |
| RPI | 0.630 (#6) | 0.558 (#64) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | PSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 38.7% |
| REB / G | 38.6 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 6.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.40 | 1.55 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 55.7% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 13.6% |
| ORB% | 38.5% | 18.9% |
| FT Rate | 27.9% | 15.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.2% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 13.2% |
| DRB% | 76.4% | 75.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.9% | 18.1% |
Game Analysis
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