Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | PSU +170 PUR -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +13 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | PUR -3.0 (-10.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.2 (+0.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 7% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -2.3 (-10.7) | 140.0 (-1.0) | 42% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -3.2 (-9.8) | 138.3 (+0.7) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -1.7 (-11.3) | 137.9 (+1.1) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -1.1 (-11.9) | 137.8 (+1.2) | 51% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | PUR 93 – 85 PSU |
| Dec 5, 2024 | PSU 81 – 70 PUR |
| Jan 13, 2024 | PUR 95 – 78 PSU |
| Mar 12, 2023 | PUR 67 – 65 PSU |
| Feb 1, 2023 | PUR 80 – 60 PSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PSU | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-14 | 29-6 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 15-5 |
| Home | 13-3 | 14-2 |
| Away | 4-7 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 7-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.2 | 62.7 |
| Massey | 8.4 (#65) | 15.5 (#11) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.60 (#58) | 3.74 (#3) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.20 (#58) | 5.67 (#1) |
| RPI | 0.562 (#75) | 0.649 (#8) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PSU | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 38.4% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 40.9 |
| OREB / G | 6.0 | 13.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.72 | 1.45 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.5% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 12.8% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 18.0% | 39.6% |
| FT Rate | 15.9% | 30.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 45.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.8% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 75.4% | 75.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.0% | 12.7% |
Game Analysis
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