Betting Lines
| Spread | PSU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | PSU -125 PUR +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PSU +11 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | PSU -7.7 (+3.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.3 (-3.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 25% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 7% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PSU -5.0 (+6.0) | 146.2 (+4.8) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PSU -5.4 (+5.6) | 147.5 (+3.5) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PSU -4.3 (+6.7) | 148.4 (+2.6) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PSU -4.3 (+6.7) | 149.3 (+1.7) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | PUR 93 – 85 PSU |
| Jan 13, 2024 | PUR 95 – 78 PSU |
| Mar 12, 2023 | PUR 67 – 65 PSU |
| Feb 1, 2023 | PUR 80 – 60 PSU |
| Jan 8, 2023 | PUR 76 – 63 PSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PSU | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-15 | 24-12 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 13-7 |
| Home | 11-6 | 14-2 |
| Away | 3-8 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | W1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.1 | 77.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.2 | 70.4 |
| Massey | 16.3 (#16) | 13.6 (#29) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.74 (#58) | 3.77 (#10) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.43 (#69) | 6.03 (#8) |
| RPI | 0.581 (#60) | 0.698 (#7) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PSU | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.2% | 49.9% |
| 3PT% | 38.1% | 42.1% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.58 | 1.62 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.2% | 57.8% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 34.4% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 28.8% | 34.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.5% | 15.1% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 18.0% |
Game Analysis
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