Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -19.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | CONN -4000 DEP +1600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CONN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +12 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | CONN -21.1 (-9.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.5 (-2.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -17.4 (-5.4) | 138.1 (-6.1) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -17.2 (-5.2) | 137.7 (-5.7) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -16.4 (-4.4) | 135.2 (-3.2) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -17.2 (-5.2) | 136.0 (-4.0) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 21, 2025 | CONN 72 – 54 DEP |
| Jan 30, 2025 | CONN 72 – 61 DEP |
| Jan 1, 2025 | CONN 81 – 68 DEP |
| Feb 15, 2024 | CONN 101 – 65 DEP |
| Jan 2, 2024 | CONN 85 – 56 DEP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CONN | DEP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 34-6 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 8-12 |
| Home | 15-2 | 11-7 |
| Away | 9-3 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 10-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.6 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.2 | 69.6 |
| Massey | 21.2 (#10) | 3.8 (#116) |
| Bradley-Terry | 5.05 (#6) | 0.75 (#112) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 7.04 (#7) | 1.05 (#107) |
| RPI | 0.670 (#7) | 0.511 (#151) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CONN | DEP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.3% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 33.4% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.71 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.2% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 34.0% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 29.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.0% | 46.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.1% | 26.6% |
Game Analysis
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