Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -24.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | CONN -7000 DEP +1800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CONN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +29 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | CONN -26.8 (+2.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.1 (-1.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -24.3 (+4.7) | 139.7 (+1.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -22.4 (+6.6) | 141.4 (-0.4) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -20.6 (+8.4) | 141.8 (-0.8) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -23.3 (+5.7) | 140.5 (+0.5) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | CONN 72 – 60 DEP |
| Dec 21, 2025 | CONN 72 – 54 DEP |
| Jan 30, 2025 | CONN 72 – 61 DEP |
| Jan 1, 2025 | CONN 81 – 68 DEP |
| Feb 15, 2024 | CONN 101 – 65 DEP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CONN | DEP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 37-3 | 3-29 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 0-20 |
| Home | 17-0 | 3-15 |
| Away | 8-3 | 0-11 |
| Neutral | 12-0 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | W13 | L20 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.4 | 64.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.4 | 81.8 |
| Massey | 16.0 (#9) | -6.3 (#278) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.94 (#16) | -1.31 (#287) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.72 (#17) | -1.57 (#282) |
| RPI | 0.638 (#13) | 0.473 (#224) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CONN | DEP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.7% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 39.6 | 31.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 7.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.77 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.4% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 39.2% | 23.2% |
| FT Rate | 26.0% | 27.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.8% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 66.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 21.8% |
Game Analysis
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