Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | CONN -1600 DEP +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CONN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +11 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | CONN -14.8 (-3.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.1 (-19.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -15.9 (-4.9) | 143.2 (-10.2) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -12.1 (-1.1) | 147.3 (-14.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -12.1 (-1.1) | 146.7 (-13.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -13.7 (-2.7) | 146.4 (-13.4) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | CONN 72 – 60 DEP |
| Dec 21, 2025 | CONN 72 – 54 DEP |
| Jan 1, 2025 | CONN 81 – 68 DEP |
| Feb 15, 2024 | CONN 101 – 65 DEP |
| Jan 2, 2024 | CONN 85 – 56 DEP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CONN | DEP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 14-20 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 4-16 |
| Home | 14-2 | 11-8 |
| Away | 7-4 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 3-5 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.0 | 74.5 |
| Massey | 14.5 (#32) | 3.0 (#114) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.81 (#54) | -0.08 (#185) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.63 (#47) | 0.14 (#161) |
| RPI | 0.553 (#85) | 0.476 (#216) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CONN | DEP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.3% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.87 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.2% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 33.7% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.2% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.5% | 19.9% |
Game Analysis
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