Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | DEP +600 CONN -1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +13 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | CONN -5.6 (-7.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.1 (-3.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 22% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 12% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -4.1 (-8.9) | 148.1 (+0.9) | 32% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -6.1 (-6.9) | 148.8 (+0.2) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -4.7 (-8.3) | 148.1 (+0.9) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -4.2 (-8.8) | 148.1 (+0.9) | 32% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | CONN 72 – 60 DEP |
| Dec 21, 2025 | CONN 72 – 54 DEP |
| Jan 30, 2025 | CONN 72 – 61 DEP |
| Feb 15, 2024 | CONN 101 – 65 DEP |
| Jan 2, 2024 | CONN 85 – 56 DEP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEP | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-20 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 4-16 | 14-6 |
| Home | 11-8 | 14-2 |
| Away | 2-10 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 3-5 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 77.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 68.0 |
| Massey | 7.3 (#78) | 17.0 (#18) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.61 (#116) | 2.62 (#28) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.12 (#101) | 3.94 (#20) |
| RPI | 0.520 (#133) | 0.581 (#53) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEP | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 49.4% |
| 3PT% | 38.9% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.39 | 2.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.9% | 57.6% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 14.5% |
| ORB% | 31.9% | 34.6% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 26.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 75.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.6% | 31.3% |
Game Analysis
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