Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -24.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +36 | 166 | Lost |
| Massey | CONN -24.5 (-11.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.7 (+24.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 0% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -22.5 (-13.5) | 140.2 (+25.8) | 11% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -16.8 (-19.2) | 143.6 (+22.4) | 11% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -17.4 (-18.6) | 140.7 (+25.3) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -20.2 (-15.8) | 144.7 (+21.3) | 11% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | CONN 72 – 60 DEP |
| Dec 21, 2025 | CONN 72 – 54 DEP |
| Jan 30, 2025 | CONN 72 – 61 DEP |
| Jan 1, 2025 | CONN 81 – 68 DEP |
| Jan 2, 2024 | CONN 85 – 56 DEP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEP | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3-29 | 37-3 |
| Conference | 0-20 | 18-2 |
| Home | 3-15 | 17-0 |
| Away | 0-11 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 12-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L20 | W13 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.7 | 81.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.8 | 63.4 |
| Massey | -8.6 (#306) | 19.4 (#6) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.68 (#318) | 3.64 (#2) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.80 (#304) | 4.35 (#2) |
| RPI | 0.442 (#282) | 0.627 (#10) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEP | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 49.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 36.3% |
| REB / G | 29.8 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.1 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 1.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.7% | 57.2% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 21.4% | 36.4% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 25.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.7% | 44.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 67.6% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 24.9% |
Game Analysis
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