Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | DEP +675 CONN -1050 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +18 | 126 | Lost |
| Massey | CONN -14.2 (-3.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.9 (-9.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 0% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -9.7 (-8.3) | 136.6 (-10.6) | 19% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -11.8 (-6.2) | 136.4 (-10.4) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -10.7 (-7.3) | 134.4 (-8.4) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -9.7 (-8.3) | 136.6 (-10.6) | 22% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | CONN 72 – 60 DEP |
| Jan 30, 2025 | CONN 72 – 61 DEP |
| Jan 1, 2025 | CONN 81 – 68 DEP |
| Feb 15, 2024 | CONN 101 – 65 DEP |
| Jan 2, 2024 | CONN 85 – 56 DEP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEP | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 34-6 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 17-3 |
| Home | 11-7 | 15-2 |
| Away | 4-7 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 10-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 76.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 65.2 |
| Massey | 2.8 (#133) | 21.2 (#7) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.36 (#142) | 4.78 (#7) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.43 (#147) | 6.90 (#6) |
| RPI | 0.481 (#205) | 0.687 (#5) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEP | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 49.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.43 | 1.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 56.1% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 33.8% |
| FT Rate | 30.2% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 41.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.9% | 30.8% |
Game Analysis
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