Betting Lines
| Spread | GW -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | GW -1350 LUC +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GW +35 | 167 | Won |
| Massey | GW -22.5 (+12.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.6 (+6.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GW -14.1 (+20.9) | 149.5 (+17.5) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GW -16.6 (+18.4) | 150.1 (+16.9) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GW -17.9 (+17.1) | 151.0 (+16.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GW -17.6 (+17.4) | 148.1 (+18.9) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | LUC 68 – 62 GW |
| Feb 27, 2025 | LUC 77 – 57 GW |
| Feb 10, 2024 | LUC 81 – 73 GW |
| Dec 31, 2022 | GW 97 – 87 LUC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GW | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-16 | 9-24 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 4-14 |
| Home | 12-4 | 6-10 |
| Away | 4-8 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.9 | 66.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 75.8 |
| Massey | 10.1 (#58) | -8.7 (#296) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.00 (#96) | -1.84 (#314) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.48 (#88) | -2.83 (#325) |
| RPI | 0.550 (#88) | 0.405 (#331) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GW | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.0% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 37.7 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.1% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 36.7% | 33.9% |
| FT Rate | 30.6% | 25.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 12.8% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 67.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.5% | 26.5% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.