Betting Lines
| Spread | GW -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | LUC +370 GW -485 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LUC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LUC +6 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | GW -14.0 (+20.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.6 (-25.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 10% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GW -10.7 (+16.7) | 148.4 (-18.4) | 18% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GW -11.6 (+17.6) | 146.8 (-16.8) | 15% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GW -12.3 (+18.3) | 147.8 (-17.8) | 16% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GW -12.2 (+18.2) | 147.2 (-17.2) | 15% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | GW 101 – 66 LUC |
| Feb 27, 2025 | LUC 77 – 57 GW |
| Feb 10, 2024 | LUC 81 – 73 GW |
| Dec 31, 2022 | GW 97 – 87 LUC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LUC | GW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-24 | 19-16 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 8-10 |
| Home | 6-10 | 12-4 |
| Away | 1-10 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.8 | 80.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.8 | 75.2 |
| Massey | -8.0 (#289) | 9.0 (#66) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.43 (#295) | 0.39 (#129) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.97 (#306) | 0.76 (#112) |
| RPI | 0.429 (#322) | 0.534 (#103) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LUC | GW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 47.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 55.5% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 36.2% |
| FT Rate | 23.2% | 26.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.9% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.6% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
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