Betting Lines
| Spread | LUC -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | LUC -200 GW +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LUC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LUC +20 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | LUC -2.1 (+17.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.9 (-7.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LUC -3.1 (+16.9) | 142.3 (-8.3) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LUC -2.1 (+17.9) | 138.9 (-4.9) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LUC -1.6 (+18.4) | 140.4 (-6.4) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LUC -2.1 (+17.9) | 141.0 (-7.0) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | LUC 68 – 62 GW |
| Jan 10, 2026 | GW 101 – 66 LUC |
| Feb 10, 2024 | LUC 81 – 73 GW |
| Dec 31, 2022 | GW 97 – 87 LUC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LUC | GW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-12 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 9-9 |
| Home | 17-1 | 13-4 |
| Away | 7-5 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 1-6 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 72.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 68.6 |
| Massey | 2.0 (#128) | 3.1 (#113) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.83 (#102) | 0.45 (#134) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.04 (#98) | 0.64 (#120) |
| RPI | 0.538 (#105) | 0.519 (#145) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LUC | GW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 30.5% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 32.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 28.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 47.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 67.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.6% | 20.2% |
Game Analysis
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