Betting Lines
| Spread | LUC -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | LUC -300 GW +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LUC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GW +10 | 184 | Lost |
| Massey | LUC -3.9 (-13.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.1 (+43.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LUC -5.4 (-15.4) | 142.6 (+41.4) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LUC -3.9 (-13.9) | 140.8 (+43.2) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LUC -3.4 (-13.4) | 141.0 (+43.0) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LUC -2.8 (-12.8) | 140.3 (+43.7) | 62% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | LUC 68 – 62 GW |
| Jan 10, 2026 | GW 101 – 66 LUC |
| Feb 27, 2025 | LUC 77 – 57 GW |
| Feb 10, 2024 | LUC 81 – 73 GW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LUC | GW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-21 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 10-8 |
| Home | 6-8 | 11-6 |
| Away | 3-8 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 1-5 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.4 | 76.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 77.3 |
| Massey | -3.1 (#231) | -2.3 (#213) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.40 (#214) | -1.03 (#271) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.44 (#206) | -1.15 (#260) |
| RPI | 0.470 (#229) | 0.412 (#320) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LUC | GW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.5% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 30.9% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 7.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.5% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 25.0% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 28.3% | 25.3% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.8% | 15.7% |
Game Analysis
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