Betting Lines
| Spread | LUC -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | GW +145 LUC -188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LUC +8 | 154 | Lost |
| Massey | LUC -1.8 (-6.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.2 (+0.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 43% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 40% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LUC -2.3 (-5.7) | 151.3 (+2.7) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LUC -2.7 (-5.3) | 147.9 (+6.1) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LUC -3.0 (-5.0) | 148.7 (+5.3) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LUC -3.4 (-4.6) | 150.5 (+3.5) | 33% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | LUC 68 – 62 GW |
| Jan 10, 2026 | GW 101 – 66 LUC |
| Feb 27, 2025 | LUC 77 – 57 GW |
| Dec 31, 2022 | GW 97 – 87 LUC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GW | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 23-10 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 15-3 |
| Home | 12-6 | 15-2 |
| Away | 1-9 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.4 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.4 | 67.6 |
| Massey | -0.9 (#179) | 4.2 (#112) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.34 (#147) | 1.23 (#82) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.19 (#161) | 1.29 (#98) |
| RPI | 0.506 (#162) | 0.567 (#70) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GW | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 39.1 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 27.0% | 24.3% |
| FT Rate | 26.5% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 46.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 74.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.3% | 25.2% |
Game Analysis
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