Betting Lines
| Spread | HOW -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Under |
| Money | UMES +130 HOW -155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UMES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UMES +12 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | HOW -1.2 (+13.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.4 (+0.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 28% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 15% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOW -2.2 (+14.2) | 129.2 (-3.2) | 33% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOW -2.2 (+14.2) | 129.8 (-3.8) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOW -3.0 (+15.0) | 127.6 (-1.6) | 33% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | HOW -1.6 (+13.6) | 128.2 (-2.2) | 35% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | HOW 79 – 53 UMES |
| Feb 17, 2025 | HOW 86 – 62 UMES |
| Feb 11, 2025 | HOW 77 – 57 UMES |
| Mar 2, 2024 | HOW 70 – 66 UMES |
| Jan 13, 2024 | HOW 72 – 61 UMES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UMES | HOW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 5-9 | 11-3 |
| Home | 6-4 | 11-4 |
| Away | 2-18 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 6-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.4 | 75.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 69.4 |
| Massey | -11.6 (#331) | -6.8 (#273) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.42 (#336) | -0.84 (#245) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.61 (#344) | -1.20 (#245) |
| RPI | 0.427 (#295) | 0.462 (#240) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UMES | HOW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.8% | 40.7% |
| 3PT% | 27.2% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.5% | 46.4% |
| TOV% | 23.2% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 29.9% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 15.9% | 29.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 21.1% |
| DRB% | 66.4% | 67.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.6% | 29.0% |
Game Analysis
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