Betting Lines
| Spread | HOW -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | UMES +200 HOW -188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UMES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOW +4 | 136 | Lost |
| Massey | HOW -5.2 (+1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.2 (-9.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 34% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOW -4.4 (+0.4) | 143.2 (-7.2) | 30% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOW -5.2 (+1.2) | 140.6 (-4.6) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOW -4.6 (+0.6) | 142.1 (-6.1) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOW -4.3 (+0.3) | 142.2 (-6.2) | 28% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | HOW 79 – 53 UMES |
| Jan 10, 2026 | UMES 69 – 57 HOW |
| Feb 17, 2025 | HOW 86 – 62 UMES |
| Feb 11, 2025 | HOW 77 – 57 UMES |
| Jan 13, 2024 | HOW 72 – 61 UMES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UMES | HOW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-20 | 18-17 |
| Conference | 4-10 | 9-5 |
| Home | 9-4 | 9-4 |
| Away | 0-15 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.1 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.1 | 75.1 |
| Massey | -14.8 (#351) | -6.3 (#276) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.52 (#349) | -1.22 (#293) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.01 (#344) | -1.36 (#288) |
| RPI | 0.374 (#357) | 0.446 (#285) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UMES | HOW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.7% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 28.4% | 36.9% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.73 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.7% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 21.5% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 32.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 30.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 67.0% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.1% | 27.1% |
Game Analysis
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