Betting Lines
| Spread | HOW -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | HOW -700 UMES +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOW +26 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | HOW -10.9 (+15.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.6 (+2.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOW -11.2 (+14.8) | 133.1 (-1.1) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOW -11.0 (+15.0) | 130.4 (+1.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOW -10.4 (+15.6) | 133.6 (-1.6) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOW -10.3 (+15.7) | 132.7 (-0.7) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | UMES 69 – 57 HOW |
| Feb 17, 2025 | HOW 86 – 62 UMES |
| Feb 11, 2025 | HOW 77 – 57 UMES |
| Mar 2, 2024 | HOW 70 – 66 UMES |
| Jan 13, 2024 | HOW 72 – 61 UMES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOW | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 11-3 | 5-9 |
| Home | 11-4 | 6-4 |
| Away | 7-6 | 2-18 |
| Neutral | 6-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.5 | 62.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 71.5 |
| Massey | -4.8 (#242) | -12.8 (#336) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.07 (#263) | -2.37 (#347) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.35 (#264) | -3.29 (#348) |
| RPI | 0.453 (#257) | 0.404 (#342) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOW | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 28.6% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 32.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.4% | 47.3% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 23.0% |
| ORB% | 34.8% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 31.1% | 20.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.3% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 67.2% | 67.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.6% | 30.3% |
Game Analysis
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