Betting Lines
| Spread | HOW -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | HOW -1200 UMES +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOW +24 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | HOW -12.9 (+11.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.4 (-6.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOW -11.3 (+12.7) | 147.1 (+0.9) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOW -10.2 (+13.8) | 144.2 (+3.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOW -10.6 (+13.4) | 148.0 (-0.0) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOW -11.7 (+12.3) | 148.9 (-0.9) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | HOW 79 – 53 UMES |
| Jan 10, 2026 | UMES 69 – 57 HOW |
| Feb 11, 2025 | HOW 77 – 57 UMES |
| Mar 2, 2024 | HOW 70 – 66 UMES |
| Jan 13, 2024 | HOW 72 – 61 UMES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOW | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 6-25 |
| Conference | 7-7 | 2-12 |
| Home | 8-6 | 5-7 |
| Away | 3-11 | 1-17 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L5 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.6 | 63.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.7 | 79.5 |
| Massey | -8.7 (#304) | -18.3 (#361) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.38 (#296) | -4.94 (#364) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.92 (#311) | -6.51 (#364) |
| RPI | 0.442 (#291) | 0.353 (#360) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOW | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.0% | 39.2% |
| 3PT% | 38.8% | 29.6% |
| REB / G | 30.4 | 30.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 0.70 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.1% | 44.7% |
| TOV% | 21.7% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 27.0% | 24.1% |
| FT Rate | 27.6% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.5% | 56.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 66.9% | 64.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.3% | 28.2% |
Game Analysis
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