Betting Lines
| Spread | HOW -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | UMES +240 HOW -290 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UMES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOW +20 | 134 | Lost |
| Massey | HOW -6.0 (-14.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.7 (-22.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOW -5.7 (-14.3) | 146.8 (-12.8) | 26% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOW -6.2 (-13.8) | 143.0 (-9.0) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOW -5.4 (-14.6) | 146.0 (-12.0) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOW -6.2 (-13.8) | 148.7 (-14.7) | 26% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | HOW 79 – 53 UMES |
| Jan 10, 2026 | UMES 69 – 57 HOW |
| Feb 17, 2025 | HOW 86 – 62 UMES |
| Mar 2, 2024 | HOW 70 – 66 UMES |
| Jan 13, 2024 | HOW 72 – 61 UMES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UMES | HOW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-25 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 2-12 | 7-7 |
| Home | 5-7 | 8-6 |
| Away | 1-17 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.3 | 75.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.5 | 80.7 |
| Massey | -17.8 (#361) | -8.6 (#299) |
| Bradley-Terry | -4.79 (#364) | -1.35 (#288) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -6.35 (#364) | -1.80 (#296) |
| RPI | 0.360 (#360) | 0.440 (#286) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UMES | HOW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.9% | 47.8% |
| 3PT% | 28.8% | 38.7% |
| REB / G | 30.8 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.67 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.2% | 54.8% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 21.5% |
| ORB% | 25.1% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 27.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.7% | 55.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.8% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 63.5% | 65.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.6% | 29.7% |
Game Analysis
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