Betting Lines
| Spread | HOW -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | HOW -700 UMES +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOW +11 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | HOW -13.6 (-2.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.5 (-18.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOW -9.7 (+1.3) | 147.2 (-14.2) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOW -9.5 (+1.5) | 146.4 (-13.4) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOW -9.5 (+1.5) | 144.4 (-11.4) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOW -10.0 (+1.0) | 143.1 (-10.1) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | HOW 79 – 53 UMES |
| Jan 10, 2026 | UMES 69 – 57 HOW |
| Feb 17, 2025 | HOW 86 – 62 UMES |
| Feb 11, 2025 | HOW 77 – 57 UMES |
| Mar 2, 2024 | HOW 70 – 66 UMES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOW | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-17 | 9-20 |
| Conference | 9-5 | 4-10 |
| Home | 9-4 | 9-4 |
| Away | 6-9 | 0-15 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.5 | 62.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.1 | 73.1 |
| Massey | -4.6 (#256) | -14.1 (#346) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.88 (#257) | -1.95 (#329) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.93 (#245) | -2.64 (#330) |
| RPI | 0.442 (#278) | 0.400 (#327) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOW | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 35.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 30.3% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 40.8% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 28.9% |
| FT Rate | 29.0% | 19.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 53.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 67.2% | 66.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.0% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
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