Betting Lines
| Spread | W&M -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | DREX +136 W&M -162 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DREX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DREX +6 | 122 | Won |
| Massey | W&M -6.4 (+12.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.4 (-27.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 16% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 11% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | W&M -5.6 (+11.6) | 140.4 (-18.4) | 27% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | W&M -3.6 (+9.6) | 142.9 (-20.9) | 32% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | W&M -5.7 (+11.7) | 143.0 (-21.0) | 28% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | W&M -5.6 (+11.6) | 140.6 (-18.6) | 24% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2025 | W&M 72 – 59 DREX |
| Feb 7, 2025 | DREX 86 – 66 W&M |
| Jan 6, 2024 | DREX 77 – 55 W&M |
| Dec 31, 2022 | DREX 66 – 56 W&M |
| Feb 18, 2022 | DREX 72 – 57 W&M |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DREX | W&M |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 10-8 |
| Home | 12-4 | 11-2 |
| Away | 4-10 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.3 | 81.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.6 | 78.9 |
| Massey | -5.8 (#254) | 4.3 (#113) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.47 (#288) | 0.79 (#109) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.86 (#283) | 0.91 (#116) |
| RPI | 0.416 (#311) | 0.557 (#82) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DREX | W&M |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.6% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 54.0% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 33.6% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 20.3% | 29.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 20.1% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 67.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.8% | 24.4% |
Game Analysis
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