Betting Lines
| Spread | DREX -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | DREX -165 W&M +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DREX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DREX +20 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | DREX -3.5 (+16.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.7 (+2.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DREX -2.0 (+18.0) | 144.8 (+7.2) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DREX -1.7 (+18.3) | 143.7 (+8.3) | 59% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DREX -3.4 (+16.6) | 146.0 (+6.0) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DREX -1.6 (+18.4) | 144.3 (+7.7) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | DREX 64 – 58 W&M |
| Feb 15, 2025 | W&M 72 – 59 DREX |
| Jan 6, 2024 | DREX 77 – 55 W&M |
| Dec 31, 2022 | DREX 66 – 56 W&M |
| Feb 18, 2022 | DREX 72 – 57 W&M |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DREX | W&M |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 11-7 |
| Home | 8-6 | 12-2 |
| Away | 7-7 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 76.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.6 | 78.5 |
| Massey | -2.2 (#198) | -2.6 (#209) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.55 (#218) | 0.01 (#177) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.70 (#220) | 0.14 (#162) |
| RPI | 0.466 (#237) | 0.516 (#150) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DREX | W&M |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.4% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 37.3 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 54.7% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 34.3% | 26.6% |
| FT Rate | 16.2% | 27.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.0% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.9% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.6% | 26.7% |
Game Analysis
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