Betting Lines
| Spread | MRSH -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | GAST +180 MRSH -218 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GAST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GAST +8 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | MRSH -6.8 (+14.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.8 (+6.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 14% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 14% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRSH -5.8 (+13.8) | 142.5 (+11.5) | 25% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MRSH -6.9 (+14.9) | 144.9 (+9.1) | 26% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRSH -6.3 (+14.3) | 145.1 (+8.9) | 29% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MRSH -6.0 (+14.0) | 143.7 (+10.3) | 29% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2025 | MRSH 84 – 80 GAST |
| Mar 7, 2025 | MRSH 79 – 76 GAST |
| Jan 31, 2025 | GAST 85 – 81 MRSH |
| Jan 24, 2025 | MRSH 92 – 79 GAST |
| Mar 8, 2024 | MRSH 86 – 74 GAST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GAST | MRSH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 11-7 |
| Home | 7-7 | 13-4 |
| Away | 3-12 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L4 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.4 | 80.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.4 | 78.9 |
| Massey | -9.7 (#307) | 0.8 (#154) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.47 (#289) | 0.95 (#99) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.67 (#273) | 0.86 (#120) |
| RPI | 0.422 (#305) | 0.561 (#78) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GAST | MRSH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.6% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 29.3% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 38.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.1% | 53.8% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 32.2% |
| FT Rate | 26.3% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 65.2% | 67.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.3% | 27.8% |
Game Analysis
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