Betting Lines
| Spread | MRSH -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | MRSH -1100 GAST +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MRSH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRSH +4 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | MRSH -18.1 (-14.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.7 (+18.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRSH -14.0 (-10.0) | 142.9 (+21.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MRSH -13.2 (-9.2) | 147.5 (+16.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRSH -12.2 (-8.2) | 146.7 (+17.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MRSH -12.6 (-8.6) | 143.5 (+20.5) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | GAST 81 – 73 MRSH |
| Mar 7, 2025 | MRSH 79 – 76 GAST |
| Jan 31, 2025 | GAST 85 – 81 MRSH |
| Jan 24, 2025 | MRSH 92 – 79 GAST |
| Mar 8, 2024 | MRSH 86 – 74 GAST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MRSH | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 7-11 |
| Home | 13-4 | 7-7 |
| Away | 6-8 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.5 | 68.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.9 | 75.4 |
| Massey | 1.8 (#143) | -12.3 (#333) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.66 (#122) | -1.65 (#300) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.71 (#132) | -2.04 (#292) |
| RPI | 0.543 (#99) | 0.401 (#331) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MRSH | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 35.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 27.4% |
| REB / G | 39.2 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.4% | 41.5% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 33.2% | 26.6% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 27.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 67.9% | 65.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.5% | 26.9% |
Game Analysis
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